Cotton County vs. Oklahoma Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Cotton County: 2022 Population = 5,477 2022 Percent of State = 0.14% Oklahoma: 2022 Population = 4,019,800 2022 Percent of U.S. = 1.21% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Cotton County with comparisons to Oklahoma and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Cotton County vs. Oklahoma's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Cotton County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Cotton County's population dropped from 6,754 in 1969 to 5,477 in 2022, for a net loss of -1,277, or -18.91%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Oklahoma's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Oklahoma's population rose from 2,535,000 in 1969 to 4,019,800 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,484,800, or 58.57%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Cotton County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Oklahoma, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Cotton County's overall population growth was -18.91% over 1969-2022 trailed Oklahoma's increase of 58.57%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Oklahoma Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Cotton County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Oklahoma's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Oklahoma's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Cotton County's population comprised 0.27% of Oklahoma's population, while in 2022 it comprised 0.14% thereby yielding a -0.13% share-shift.
Cotton County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Cotton County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Cotton County's population contracted at an annual rate of -0.38% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1983 (3.17%) and posted its lowest growth in 1985 (-3.38%). In 2022, Cotton County's population grew by 0.18% Cotton County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in Cotton County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Cotton County's annual population growth rate averaged 0.62%. It averaged -0.62% during the 1980s, -0.37% throughout the 1990s, -0.46% during the 2000s, -1.10% during the 2010s, -0.32% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Cotton County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Oklahoma and the nation. As the chart reveals, Cotton County's average annual population growth fell below Oklahoma's average during the 1970s (0.62% vs. 1.60%), posted below Oklahoma's average in the 1980s (-0.62% vs. 0.61%), amounted to less than Oklahoma's average during the 1990s (-0.37% vs. 0.88%), lagged Oklahoma's average in the 2000s (-0.46% vs. 0.79%), amounted to less than Oklahoma's average in the 2010s (-1.10% vs. 0.59%), and trailed Oklahoma's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.32% vs. 0.64%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Cotton County trailed the nation over the 1970s (0.62% vs. 1.10%), recorded underneath the nation over the 1980s (-0.62% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation throughout the 1990s (-0.37% vs. 1.23%), fell under the nation during the 2000s (-0.46% vs. 0.95%), recorded underneath the nation in the 2010s (-1.10% vs. 0.74%), and fell below the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.32% vs. 0.31%).
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