Kay County vs. Oklahoma Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Kay County: 2022 Population = 43,668 2022 Percent of State = 1.09% Oklahoma: 2022 Population = 4,019,800 2022 Percent of U.S. = 1.21% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Kay County with comparisons to Oklahoma and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Kay County vs. Oklahoma's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Kay County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Kay County's population dropped from 48,344 in 1969 to 43,668 in 2022, for a net loss of -4,676, or -9.67%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Oklahoma's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Oklahoma's population rose from 2,535,000 in 1969 to 4,019,800 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,484,800, or 58.57%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Kay County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Oklahoma, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Kay County's overall population growth was -9.67% over 1969-2022 trailed Oklahoma's increase of 58.57%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Oklahoma Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Kay County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Oklahoma's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Oklahoma's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Kay County's population comprised 1.91% of Oklahoma's population, while in 2022 it totaled 1.09% thereby yielding a -0.82% share-shift.
Kay County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Kay County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Kay County's population contracted at an annual rate of -0.19% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 1982 (2.64%) and posted its lowest growth in 1988 (-2.73%). In 2022, Kay County's population declined by -0.13% Kay County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Kay County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Kay County's annual population growth rate averaged 0.19%. It averaged -0.14% in the 1980s, -0.03% in the 1990s, -0.32% throughout the 2000s, -0.64% in the 2010s, -0.19% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Kay County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Oklahoma and the nation. As the chart reveals, Kay County's average annual population growth recorded under Oklahoma's average throughout the 1970s (0.19% vs. 1.60%), lagged Oklahoma's average during the 1980s (-0.14% vs. 0.61%), recorded under Oklahoma's average during the 1990s (-0.03% vs. 0.88%), fell below Oklahoma's average throughout the 2000s (-0.32% vs. 0.79%), amounted to less than Oklahoma's average in the 2010s (-0.64% vs. 0.59%), and trailed Oklahoma's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.19% vs. 0.64%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Kay County fell under the nation during the 1970s (0.19% vs. 1.10%), recorded underneath the nation throughout the 1980s (-0.14% vs. 0.95%), fell below the nation over the 1990s (-0.03% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation throughout the 2000s (-0.32% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation during the 2010s (-0.64% vs. 0.74%), and trailed the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.19% vs. 0.31%).
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